Friday, July 11, 2008

Unemployment and Inflation Numbers Suspicious

The US likes to taut its low unemployment figures and criticize Europe for its higher unemployment figures...suggesting that it is Europe's rigid labor unions, overly generous worker safety nets, or employee protections that drive up their unemployment.

Unemployment figures are rated from U1 to U7, U1 being the narrowest definition of unemployment and U7 the widest definition. One of the reasons the US unemployment figures are lower are they choose to report a different figure than most of Western Europe. The US quotes from U3 and most of Western Europe quotes from U6. There is nothing wrong with using either number, per say, except when used to suggest economic superiority.

U3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (the official unemployment rate for the US)

U6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers


I have heard some economists and businessmen recently suggest that the inflation numbers being published in the States are cooked and bear no resemblance to inflation figures published twenty years ago. Core inflation, the number the economists worry about, doesn't take into effect volatile energy and food prices. However, these are the numbers that have been rising exponentially and affecting all sorts of other prices. Inflation is rising and the Fed should act but can't because higher interest rates may predispose the economy even more to recession.

2 comments:

::athada:: said...

My org. gets funding from FEMA. This year's total federal pot was larger, but our local allotment smaller, even though our local economy is near-bottom.

One person thinks that they allocate by unemployment stats at the local office. People lose jobs, draw for 6 months, then are lost from the system. They don't "count" toward our allocation, even though they are jobless.

But this is just non-profit complaining, so don't listen :)

Joel said...

so, do accurate stats comparing the europe and the US unemployment rates exist ? i would like to see them.
monica